Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday


	Estrela da Amadora		Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.42	3.83	1.94
	3.65	3.75	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↓ (3.65)	3.79 ↑ (3.75)	1.88 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
26.2%

Draw
24.5%

Nacional
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

24.5%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

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Key Events of the Match

(2 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 2.

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nacional is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora - the odds 3.65 are the expected chance of winning is 25.13%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
16.05.26	Braga - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
11.05.26	Estrela da Amadora - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTLLL
- Atletico Nacional
Club Friendly
19.07.26	Tondela - Nacional	Canceled ✺
Liga Portugal
16.05.26	Nacional - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
11.05.26	Santa Clara - Nacional	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Nacional - AVS	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Tondela - Nacional	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 ?WLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1
06.04.25	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	0:1
10.11.24	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
21.05.23	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	0:1
15.01.23	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	0:1
16.04.22	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	0:0

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