Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 28 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Casa Pia		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	3.05	2.85	2.5	Watch
	3.05	2.92	2.48	Watch
	3.12	3.03	2.49	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.45	Watch
	3.14	3.1	2.57	Watch
	3.2	2.9	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 (3.11)	2.95 ↓ (3.17)	2.49 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
30.3%

Draw
31.9%

Vitoria Guimarães
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

29.8%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

29.5%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	22.7%	59.1%

Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Guimarães will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Guimarães (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Casa Pia (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Casa Pia (3.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Guimarães (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 8. Brito R. 74. Nhaga R. 5. Conte A. 20. Oukili Y. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 29. Livolant J.	25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 3. Nobrega M. 26. Abascal R. 17. Lebedenko O. 30. Nogueira G. 6. Mitrovic M. 18. Arcanjo T. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 19. Camara O.
Substitutes
33. Batista R. (G) 90. Cassiano 4. Goulart J. 99. Mendes C. 14. Miguel Sousa 7. Nsona K. 42. Perez S. 19. Prieto K. 17. Severina X.	22. Blanco F. 27. Charles Silva (G) 21. Felix V. 90. Ndoye A. 88. Nogueira M. 75. Oliveira A. 80. Rocha R. 23. Sousa D. 66. Strata T.
Coaches
Santana A.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Mitrovic M. 🟨,
30', Oukili Y. 🟨,
41', Maga 🟨,
41', Rocha Livramento D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Maga ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
46', Mitrovic M. ↓, Strata T. ↑,
57', Camara O. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
62', Oukili Y. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
62', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
63', Sousa D. 🟨,
74', Brito R. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
79', Miguel Sousa 🟨,
84', Larrazabal G. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
84', Livolant J. ↓, Nsona K. ↑,
84', Samu ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
90+2', Arcanjo T. ↓, Nogueira M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.

Casa Pia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guimarães's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Knee Injury) Mohamed I. (International duty) Svensson M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Guimarães: Beni (International duty) Gustavo (Injury) Mendes J. II. (Yellow Cards) Oliveira N. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Tchamba D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Santa Clara - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLTLL
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
23.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.03.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	1:0
28.09.24	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1
24.02.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:2
23.09.23	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
19.02.23	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
29.08.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:1
Portuguese League Cup
01.08.21	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1

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