Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Italy	DAZN Italia
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
World	Onefootball


	Santa Clara		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3.1	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.75
	2.42	2.98	3.05	Watch
	2.56	3.09	3.19
	2.45	3.04	3.17	Watch
	2.5	2.88	3	Watch
	2.67	3.08	3.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.43)	3.02 (3.02)	3.04 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Clara
37.6%

Draw
31.3%

Vitoria Guimarães
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

31.3%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

32.6%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	58.3%	25%

Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Santa Clara will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Guimarães will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Guimarães (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 1 - 25%). Guimarães (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Batista (C) 42. Lucas Soares 23. Lima S. 94. Silva H. 5. Guilherme Romao 65. Tavares J. 8. Ferreira P. 35. Serginho 10. Gabriel Silva 26. Fernando 49. Welinton Torrao	27. Charles Silva (G) 66. Strata T. 28. Thiago Balieiro 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 16. Beni 23. Sousa D. 18. Arcanjo T. 20. Samu (C) 48. Saviolo N. 90. Ndoye A.
Substitutes
11. Brenner 37. Darlan 2. Diogo Calila 7. Elias Manoel 77. Gustavo Klismahn 12. Neneca (G) 4. Pacheco P. 39. Paciencia G. 64. Paulo Victor	19. Camara O. 25. Castillo J. (G) 11. Gustavo 17. Lebedenko O. 2. Maga 6. Mitrovic M. 3. Nobrega M. 30. Nogueira G. 7. Oliveira N.
Coaches
Petit	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', Mendes J. II. 🟨,
6', 1 - 0, Lima S. ⚽, Guilherme Romao (A),
14', 2 - 0, Welinton Torrao ⚽,
39', Lucas Soares 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Beni ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
46', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
55', Ndoye A. ↓, Oliveira N. ↑,
55', Arcanjo T. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
59', Lucas Soares ↓, Diogo Calila ↑,
60', Serginho 🟨,
69', Samu ↓, Camara O. ↑,
73', Tavares J. 🟨,
76', Tavares J. ↓, Gustavo Klismahn ↑,
76', Fernando ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
83', Gabriel Silva ↓, Brenner ↑,
83', Welinton Torrao ↓, Pacheco P. ↑,
89', Camara O. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won 1.

Recent form of Santa Clara has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Guimarães has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Santa Clara: MT (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Clara won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.1:1.7).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Santa Clara: 0.82% Vitoria Guimaraes: 0.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12:4	8	18
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5

Last Results with these Odds

Santa Clara - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.86%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
01.03.26	Tondela - Santa Clara	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Alverca - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Santa Clara - Benfica	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Estrela da Amadora - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Santa Clara - Estoril Praia	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TTLLL
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
30.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	2:1
05.04.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	2:0
10.11.24	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
05.03.23	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3
09.09.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	1:0
01.05.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	1:1
17.12.21	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0

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