Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Serafim D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, SBT, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Vitória Salvador		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.15	3	3.3
	1.95	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.02	3.25	4.03
	1.81	3.41	4.34	Watch
	2	2.9	3.7
	2	2.99	3.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.15)	3.12 ↑ (2.95)	3.74 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
46.2%

Draw
29.3%

Ceará
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

31%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

30%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Vitória Salvador - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 45. Nathan Mendes 25. Caca 36. Luan Candido 13. Ramon 95. Caique Goncalves 88. Ze Vitor 6. Emmanuel Martinez 33. Erick 91. Rene 10. Matheuzinho	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 21. Alex Silva 33. Eder 4. Luiz Otavio 17. Fernando 18. Julio Cesar 20. Diego 10. Juan Alano 11. Fernandinho 30. Gustavo Prado 99. Lucca
Substitutes
44. Baralhas 26. Edenilson 83. Jamerson 31. Lopez R. 20. Lucas Silva 7. Marinho 77. Neris 11. Osvaldo 79. Renato Kayzer 8. Ronald Lopes 12. Tarzia D. 71. Yuri (G)	63. Gilmar 35. Giulio 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 81. Joao Gabriel 31. Lucas Lima 8. Matheus Araujo 40. Melk 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez 25. Vinicius Zanocelo
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Eder 🟨,
35', Luiz Otavio 🟥,
40', Lucca ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
69', Bruno Ferreira 🟨,
74', 1 - 0, Renato Kayzer ⚽,
85', Alex Silva 🟥,
89', Nathan Mendes 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Vitória may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ceará has had a series of away games.

Vitória might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Vitória Salvador - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.55%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vitória Salvador - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTLLT
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Maranhão - Ceará	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Ceará - Vila Nova	3:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Londrina - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.10.25	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0
03.05.25	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
13.08.23	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0
10.05.23	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	0:2
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.03.23	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	2:0
24.04.21	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	2:0
06.03.21	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	3:1

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