Match Info

FNL - Round 8

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Trud Stadium (Ulyanovsk)

Referee: Opeykina V. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Volga Ulyanovsk		Chernomorets Novorossiysk

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	3.05
	2.5	3.1	3.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.88)	3.1 ↑ (3.04)	3.06 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Volga Ulyanovsk
37.7%

Draw
31%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

31%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

31.2%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Volga Ulyanovsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Volga Ulyanovsk than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Volga Ulyanovsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chernomorets Novorossiysk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Volga Ulyanovsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Volga Ulyanovsk will win (votes: 7 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Chernomorets (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Volga Ulyanovsk (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Volga Ulyanovsk will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Volga Ulyanovsk (votes: 4 - 80%). Chernomorets (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
86. Shaykhutdinov V. (G) 20. Kovalev K. 15. Kokoev D. 4. Ibragimov K. 3. Krasilnichenko O. 28. Novikov D. 10. Uridia G. 7. Murza A. 29. Shagiakhmetov R. 14. Yakovlev V. 9. Kamenshchikov D. (C)	32. Matyusha M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 3. Pliev Z. (C) 13. Puzanov S. 81. Tonevitskiy E. 99. Morozov K. 8. Tarba Z. 7. Antonov A. 25. Lozhkin V. 10. Zhigulev I. 44. Kukharchuk I.
Substitutes
77. Gutsa A. 1. Kenyaykin A. (G) 6. Kozlov I. 82. Larionov K. 91. Molodtsov A. 87. Pshennikov E. 8. Rakhmanov D. 22. Rakhmanov D. 19. Rudenko V. 27. Umnikov M.	9. Aliev S. 40. Baksheev N. 11. Gurchenko D. 5. Krachkovskii A. 73. Shtepa M. (G) 59. Syshchenko M. 17. Zhilkin G.
Coaches
Belov M.	Sarkisov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Morozov K. 🟨,
20', Tarba Z. 🟨,
20', Shagiakhmetov R. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Tarba Z. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Puzanov S. ↓, Zhilkin G. ↑,
64', Novikov D. 🟨,
66', Krasilnichenko O. ↓, Gutsa A. ↑,
66', Yakovlev V. ↓, Rudenko V. ↑,
68', Lozhkin V. ↓, Gurchenko D. ↑,
76', Shagiakhmetov R. ↓, Umnikov M. ↑,
76', Uridia G. ↓, Rakhmanov D. ↑,
77', Tarba Z. ↓, Aliev S. ↑,
86', Kovalev K. ↓, Molodtsov A. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Rudenko V. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Volga Ulyanovsk has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chernomorets is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Volga Ulyanovsk is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Volga Ulyanovsk
Russian FNL
30.08.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Arsenal Tula	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Ural - Volga Ulyanovsk	4:0 ✺
17.08.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - SKA Khabarovsk	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Chelyabinsk - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLWLT
- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
30.08.25	Shinnik - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Fakel	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Sokol Saratov - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Arsenal Tula	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

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