Match Info

FNL - Round 10

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Trud Stadium (Ulyanovsk)

Referee: Fedotov S. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Volga Ulyanovsk		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	2.56	3.3	2.86
	2.5	3.25	2.8
	2.51	3.32	2.87	Watch
	2.37	3.05	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.46)	3.23 ↑ (3.2)	2.81 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Volga Ulyanovsk
37.7%

Draw
29%

Arsenal Tula
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

29.2%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

29.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Volga Ulyanovsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Volga Ulyanovsk than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Volga Ulyanovsk - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shakerov R. (G) 77. Bagatelia L. 9. Folmer K. 4. Ibragimov K. (C) 30. Khabibullin A. 11. Khashkulov A. 99. Kostin A. 3. Krasilnichenko O. 7. Nikitin A. 8. Rakhmanov D. 55. Saplinov A.	42. Melikhov A. (G) 82. Alekhin A. 14. Brnovic M. 19. Glushkov N. 44. Isaenko O. 45. Karmaev N. 23. Melekestsev T. 77. Plotnikov D. 21. Razdorskikh N. (C) 7. Reyes E. 8. Shamkin D.
Substitutes
23. Baburin E. (G) 50. Bykov A. 17. Gershun I. 60. Kasyanov I. 76. Livadnov V. 28. Novikov D. 22. Rakhmanov D. 10. Shagiakhmetov R. 5. Stepanov D. 14. Yakovlev V.	25. Biryukov A. 9. Davidyan D. 35. Enin I. 17. Gorbunov I. 24. Gotsuk K. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 36. Levashov M. (G) 11. Magomedov R. 22. Uridia G. 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.
Coaches
Tuskaev A.	Gunko D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Kostin A. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Saplinov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Shamkin D. ↓, Gorbunov I. ↑,
46', Razdorskikh N. ↓, Magomedov R. ↑,
56', Folmer K. ↓, Rakhmanov D. ↑,
62', Isaenko O. 🟨,
64', 2 - 0, Magomedov R. (Own goal),
67', Karmaev N. 🟨,
69', 3 - 0, Saplinov A. ⚽,
70', Isaenko O. ↓, Gotsuk K. ↑,
72', Bagatelia L. ↓, Gershun I. ↑,
74', Brnovic M. ↓, Zhigulev I. ↑,
75', Gershun I. 🟨,
77', Kostin A. ↓, Novikov D. ↑,
77', Khashkulov A. ↓, Yakovlev V. ↑,
79', Glushkov N. ↓, Uridia G. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 9).

Volga Ulyanovsk is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Arsenal has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Volga Ulyanovsk won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Volga Ulyanovsk won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Arsenal Tula: 0.78% Ulyanovsk: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ulyanovsk	13	4	2	7	16:19	-3	14
12	Arsenal Tula	12	3	4	5	12:22	-10	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Volga Ulyanovsk
Russian FNL
30.08.26	Nizhny Novgorod - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Volga Ulyanovsk - Shinnik	1:3 ✺
16.08.26	Sochi - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:0 ✺
09.08.26	KAMAZ - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	Volga Ulyanovsk - Chelyabinsk	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLLWL
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
29.08.26	Arsenal Tula - Ural	2:2 ✺
24.08.26	Veles Moscow - Arsenal Tula	2:0 ✺
20.08.26	Arsenal Tula - Rotor	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Leningradets - Arsenal Tula	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Shinnik - Arsenal Tula	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
17.06.26	Arsenal Tula - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:2
Russian FNL
09.03.26	Arsenal Tula - Volga Ulyanovsk	0:1
30.08.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Arsenal Tula	2:1
15.04.23	Volga Ulyanovsk - Arsenal Tula	0:0
25.09.22	Arsenal Tula - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:0

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