Match Info

FNL - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Prokopov A. (Rus)


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Fakel

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.05	2.54
	3.08	3.13	2.41
	3.34	3.26	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (3.1)	3.15 ↑ (3.1)	2.38 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
29.9%

Draw
30.2%

Fakel
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Fakel Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fakel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Fakel (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fakel (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
73. Shtepa M. (G) 9. Aliev S. 2. Cherov V. 22. Gorelov P. 4. Kirsch I. 25. Lozhkin V. 99. Morozov K. 18. Nikolaev O. 3. Pliev Z. 89. Stotskiy D. 77. Zarypbekov E.	1. Frolkin D. (G) 10. Alshin I. 8. Bagamaev A. 27. Magkeev S. 97. Magomedov B. 52. Netfullin R. 19. Pusi B. 18. Simonov K. 93. Uridia M. 20. Yurganov I. 44. Zhuravlev Y.
Substitutes
7. Antonov A. 11. Gurchenko D. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 69. Rodionov I. 8. Tarba Z. 81. Tonevitskiy E. 10. Zhigulev I. 17. Zhilkin G.	70. Abdokov N. 77. Bagatelia L. 7. Brahimi M. 5. Gabaraev A. 95. Gaponov I. 99. Giorgobiani N. 21. Gongadze G. 11. Motpan N. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 9. Turishchev M. 23. Yakimov V.
Coaches
Pervushin S.	Shalimov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Bagamaev A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bagamaev A. ↓, Yakimov V. ↑,
57', Magkeev S. 🟨,
59', Magomedov B. ↓, Motpan N. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Pusi B. ⚽,
65', Magkeev S. ↓, Gaponov I. ↑,
67', Gorelov P. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
67', Lozhkin V. ↓, Zhigulev I. ↑,
75', Stotskiy D. ↓, Zhilkin G. ↑,
77', 🟨,
79', Uridia M. ↓, Gongadze G. ↑,
80', Alshin I. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
82', Aliev S. ↓, Kukharchuk I. ↑,
82', Zarypbekov E. ↓, Krachkovskii A. ↑,
89', Simonov K. 🟨,

Preview

Fakel is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Fakel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fakel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chernomorets won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Chernomorets won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 30.96%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
09.08.25	Sokol Saratov - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Arsenal Tula	1:2 ✺
28.07.25	Ural - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:2 ✺
21.07.25	Rodina Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1 ✺
24.05.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Sochi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TLLTW
- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
11.08.25	KAMAZ - Fakel	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Fakel - Sokol Saratov	1:0 ✺
27.07.25	Fakel - Ufa	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Spartak Kostroma - Fakel	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Rostov - Fakel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
24.08.16	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Fakel	0:1 ET

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