The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Volga Ulyanovsk 38.1%
Draw 28.9%
Shinnik 33%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.6%
27.6%
27.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
46.3%
28.6%
26.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Volga Ulyanovsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Volga Ulyanovsk's form might have worsened.
Shinnik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shinnik's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Volga Ulyanovsk than the current prediction. (+8.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Volga Ulyanovsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shinnik than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shinnik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Volga Ulyanovsk - Shinnik Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
23. Baburin E. (G) 17. Gershun I. 4. Ibragimov K. 30. Khabibullin A. (C) 11. Khashkulov A. 99. Kostin A. 7. Nikitin A. 28. Novikov D. 8. Rakhmanov D. 55. Saplinov A. 5. Stepanov D.
51. Mitrov T. (G) 24. Azyavin I. 50. Golubev A. 10. Gongapshev A. 49. Karaev M. 62. Karpov V. 2. Kosogorov A. 53. Kotin N. 64. Lanin O. 11. Porokhov I. 15. Samoylov D. (C)
Substitutes
77. Bagatelia L. 50. Bykov A. 9. Folmer K. 60. Kasyanov I. 3. Krasilnichenko O. 76. Livadnov V. 22. Rakhmanov D. 10. Shagiakhmetov R. 1. Shakerov R. (G) 14. Yakovlev V.
19. Arbuzov Y. 27. Chernyi A. 23. Chistyakov N. 7. Martovoy D. 88. Mironov D. 54. Shmakov I. 17. Valiakhmetov E. 95. Vambolt D. (G) 13. Yanov D.
Coaches
Belov M.
Boyarintsev D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
14', Karaev M. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Azyavin I. ⚽,
34', 0 - 2, Samoylov D. ⚽, Mitrov T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Karaev M. ↓, Chistyakov N. ↑,
49', 0 - 3, Porokhov I. ⚽,
55', Gershun I. ↓, Bagatelia L. ↑,
55', Saplinov A. ↓, Folmer K. ↑,
61', Porokhov I. ↓, Mironov D. ↑,
61', Samoylov D. ↓, Martovoy D. ↑,
67', Bagatelia L. 🟨,
69', Kosogorov A. ↓, Valiakhmetov E. ↑,
70', Kostin A. 🟨,
70', Kostin A. ↓, Yakovlev V. ↑,
77', Nikitin A. ↓, Kasyanov I. ↑,
77', Novikov D. ↓, Livadnov V. ↑,
80', Azyavin I. ↓, Chernyi A. ↑,
81', Folmer K. 🟨,
86', 1 - 3, Kasyanov I. ⚽,
Preview
This time weโll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 10).
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Shinnik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Volga Ulyanovsk won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Volga Ulyanovsk won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).
Outrights of Russian FNL for now
Ulyanovsk: 0.78% Shinnik Yaroslavl: 0.78%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
9
Shinnik Yaroslavl
12
3
7
2
15:13
2
16
11
Ulyanovsk
13
4
2
7
16:19
-3
14
Last Results with these Odds
Shinnik - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 27.88%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.
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Baburin E. (G) 
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