Match Info

Copa Sul-Sudeste - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Raulino de Oliveira (Volta Redonda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports


	Volta Redonda		Avaí

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.83	2.95	2.62
	2.63	2.48	3.28	Watch
	2.6	3	2.5
	2.62	2.99	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.54)	2.86 ↓ (3.03)	2.73 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Volta Redonda
34.3%

Draw
32.1%

Avaí
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

30%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

32.6%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Volta Redonda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Volta Redonda than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Volta Redonda - Avaí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Avelino (G) 13. Alan 5. Bruno Barra (C) 29. Caetano 8. Dener 6. Jean Victor 10. Luciano Naninho 11. MV 16. Pedro Costa 17. Wagninho 9. Ygor Catatau	1. Igor Bohn (G) 14. Daniel Penha 36. DG 4. Gabriel Simples 15. Guilherme Aquino 8. Luiz Henrique 25. Paulo Vitor 11. Sorriso 57. Walace Franca 52. Wesley Gasolina 77. Ze Ricardo (C)
Substitutes
19. Blanco O. 18. Caio Henrique 4. Fabricio 20. Fellipinho 12. Heitor Silva (G) 25. Juliano Fabro 30. Juninho Ramos 7. Marquinhos 23. Matheus Moresche 14. Rafael Castro 28. Rafael Furtado 26. Romarinho	9. Avenatti F. 6. Cabral N. 30. Cristiano 18. Hyan 20. Isaias 16. Jamerson 10. Jean Lucas 41. Leo Aragao (G) 7. Rafael Bilu 43. Thayllon 2. Wallison 95. Wanderson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Wesley Gasolina 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Pedro Costa ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Wesley Gasolina ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 1, Alan ⚽,
63', Caetano ↓, Rafael Castro ↑,
63', Luciano Naninho ↓, Fellipinho ↑,
69', Bruno Barra 🟨,
69', Paulo Vitor ↓, Thayllon ↑,
70', Wesley Gasolina ↓, Wallison ↑,
75', Bruno Barra ↓, Caio Henrique ↑,
75', MV ↓, Romarinho ↑,
76', Walace Franca ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
76', Luiz Henrique 🟨,
83', Ygor Catatau ↓, Blanco O. ↑,
84', Sorriso ↓, Cristiano ↑,
85', Luiz Henrique ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Daniel Penha ⚽,
90+4', Wagninho 🟨,
90+8', Guilherme Aquino 🟥,

Preview

First leg.

Volta Redonda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Avaí's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Avaí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Volta Redonda won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Volta Redonda won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Volta Redonda - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 35.85%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Avaí - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.16%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Volta Redonda
Brazilian Serie C
16.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Volta Redonda - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Volta Redonda - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Caxias - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLTL
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Vila Nova - Avaí	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Avaí - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.10.25	Avaí - Volta Redonda	3:0
17.06.25	Volta Redonda - Avaí	1:1
Copa do Brasil
24.04.13	Avaí - Volta Redonda	4:1
10.04.13	Volta Redonda - Avaí	1:0

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