Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 15

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo)

Referee: Johnson O. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Max, Veikkaus TV
Sweden	Discovery+, HBO Max, max Extra 3, TV4 Play


	Värnamo		Djurgården

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.9	1.75	Watch
	4.33	3.6	1.75
	4.65	3.85	1.72	Watch
	4.6	3.95	1.78
				Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.75
	4.43	3.92	1.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↑ (3.28)	3.8 ↑ (3.43)	1.75 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
21.1%

Draw
24.8%

Djurgården
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

27.4%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

27.7%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Värnamo's form might have worsened.

Djurgården has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Djurgården's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Värnamo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Djurgården than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Djurgården, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	23.8%	66.7%

Värnamo - Djurgården Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Värnamo will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Djurgården will win (votes: 14 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Djurgården: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Djurgården (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Värnamo (3.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Djurgården (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Värnamo (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Djurgården (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 2. Rapp J. 6. Andersson H. 27. Coulibaly S. 24. Grozdanic E. 7. Johansson C. 22. Thern S. (C) 28. Junior Adjei F. 32. Bilalovic K. 14. Antonsson M. 10. Zeljkovic A.	45. Manojlovic F. (G) 27. Kosugi K. 5. Tenho M. 3. Danielson M. (C) 19. Bergh V. 7. Gulliksen T. 6. Schuller R. 20. Siltanen M. 22. Aslund P. 9. Priske A. 10. Nguen T.
Substitutes
21. Abdulrazak I. 18. Alsalkhadi M. 39. Andersson V. (G) 17. Bozicevic F. 26. Johansson C. 9. Kalu J. 25. Shamoun N. 11. Wenderson 20. Winsth F.	17. Anderson A. 15. Fallenius O. 14. Finndell H. 2. Johansson P. 35. Rinne J. (G) 31. Saeed A. 11. Sawo Z. 18. Stahl A. 4. Une-Larsson J.
Coaches
Sandsto A.	Honkavaara J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Schuller R. ↓, Anderson M. ↑,
60', Manojlovic F. 🟨,
61', Antonsson M. 🟨,
61', Tenho M. 🟨,
68', Aslund P. 🟨,
70', Aslund P. ↓, Fallenius O. ↑,
70', Bergh V. ↓, Stahl A. ↑,
74', Junior Adjei F. 🟨,
78', Priske A. ↓, Sawo Z. ↑,
78', Thern S. ↓, Shamoun N. ↑,
78', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Abdulrazak I. ↑,
82', Johansson C. 🟨,
85', Bilalovic K. ↓, Alsalkhadi M. ↑,
85', Junior Adjei F. ↓, Kalu J. ↑,
90+2', Johansson C. ↓, Wenderson ↑,
90+4', 1 - 0, Alsalkhadi M. ⚽, Antonsson M. (A),
90+6', Kalu J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Djurgården may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Djurgården is the team to beat.

There will not play in Värnamo: Bjornstrom A. (Yellow Cards) Larsson V. (Yellow Cards) Le Roux L. (Yellow Cards) Mohammed R. (Red Card)

There will not play in Djurgården: Bergvall T. (Yellow Cards) Ekdal A. (Yellow Cards) Marques M. (Inactive) Nilsson M. (Elbow Injury) Stahl A. (Inactive) Stensson D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Värnamo: Lohikangas A. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Värnamo won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
05.07.25	Hammarby - Värnamo	1:0 ✺
29.06.25	Värnamo - Elfsborg	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.06.25	Molde - Värnamo	2:3 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
01.06.25	Mjällby - Värnamo	2:0 ✺
24.05.25	Värnamo - Öster	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LTWLT
- Djurgårdens IF
Swedish Allsvenskan
06.07.25	Djurgården - Degerfors	5:1 ✺
30.06.25	Djurgården - Norrköping	1:1 ✺
01.06.25	Halmstad - Djurgården	1:0 ✺
29.05.25	Brommapojkarna - Djurgården	0:1 ✺
25.05.25	Djurgården - Häcken	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
29.09.24	Värnamo - Djurgården	1:1
14.07.24	Djurgården - Värnamo	1:0
16.09.23	Djurgården - Värnamo	1:2
08.07.23	Värnamo - Djurgården	1:2
Club Friendly
14.02.23	Djurgården - Värnamo	1:4
Swedish Allsvenskan
07.08.22	Värnamo - Djurgården	0:0
16.07.22	Djurgården - Värnamo	5:0

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