Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 14

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: 3Arena (Stockholm)

Referee: Klitte F. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	ZhiBo8
Finland	Max, Veikkaus TV
Sweden	Discovery+, max Extra 2, Max, TV4 Play


	Hammarby		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	7.5	Watch
	1.43	4.6	6.5
	1.35	5.3	7.7	Watch
	1.37	5.35	8.34
				Watch
	1.44	4.5	6.5
	1.35	5.2	8.4	Watch
	1.37	4.95	7.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.37)	4.99 ↑ (4.94)	7.55 ↓ (7.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hammarby
68.5%

Draw
19%

Värnamo
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

19.1%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.6%

18.4%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hammarby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hammarby than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Hammarby - Värnamo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Hammarby (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Värnamo (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Värnamo (6.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Värnamo (3.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hammarby will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Hammarby (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Värnamo (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hahn W. (G) 2. Skoglund H. 4. Eriksson V. 17. Fofana I. 19. Pinas S. 8. Karlsson M. 5. Tekie T. 20. Besara N. (C) 26. Madjed M. 9. Erabi J. 18. Tounekti S.	1. Keto H. (G) 5. Larsson V. (C) 4. Mohammed R. 24. Grozdanic E. 3. Bjornstrom A. 7. Johansson C. 8. Le Roux L. 28. Junior Adjei F. 32. Bilalovic K. 15. Cibicki P. 10. Zeljkovic A.
Substitutes
23. Boudah A. 27. Jakobsson F. (G) 11. Johansson O. 29. Kabore M. 13. Karlsson J. 15. Lahdo A. 22. Ortmark J. 21. Strand S. 3. Winther F.	21. Abdulrazak I. 6. Andersson H. 39. Andersson V. (G) 17. Bozicevic F. 26. Johansson C. 2. Rapp J. 11. Wenderson 20. Winsth F.
Coaches
Hellberg K.	Sandsto A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Le Roux L. 🟨,
19', Mohammed R. 🟥,
31', Bilalovic K. ↓, Andersson H. ↑,
40', Pinas S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Karlsson M. 🟨,
61', Madjed M. ↓, Kabore M. ↑,
61', Erabi J. ↓, Boudah A. ↑,
68', Bjornstrom A. 🟨,
72', Cibicki P. ↓, Wenderson ↑,
76', Fofana I. ↓, Winther F. ↑,
80', Johansson C. ↓, Rapp J. ↑,
80', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Bozicevic F. ↑,
85', Tekie T. ↓, Johansson O. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Kabore M. ⚽,
90+1', Kabore M. 🟨,
90+3', Larsson V. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hammarby won 1.

Hammarby is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Värnamo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Hammarby has had a series of home games.

In this match, Hammarby is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Hammarby: Abraham P. (Inactive) Collander D. (Knee Injury) Lindberg W. (Inactive) Winther F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Värnamo: Lohikangas A. (Inactive)

We predict that Hammarby will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hammarby won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Hammarby won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hammarby IF Football
Swedish Allsvenskan
28.06.25	Hammarby - Halmstad	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.06.25	Hammarby - Haninge	8:3 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
31.05.25	Elfsborg - Hammarby	0:2 ✺
26.05.25	Hammarby - Degerfors	1:0 ✺
22.05.25	Hammarby - Mjällby	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWL
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
29.06.25	Värnamo - Elfsborg	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.06.25	Molde - Värnamo	2:3 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
01.06.25	Mjällby - Värnamo	2:0 ✺
24.05.25	Värnamo - Öster	1:1 ✺
18.05.25	Häcken - Värnamo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
17.08.24	Värnamo - Hammarby	0:3
05.05.24	Hammarby - Värnamo	1:2
04.11.23	Värnamo - Hammarby	0:0
29.05.23	Hammarby - Värnamo	0:2
31.07.22	Hammarby - Värnamo	1:2
29.05.22	Värnamo - Hammarby	1:0
Swedish Superettan
31.08.14	Värnamo - Hammarby	0:2

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