Match Info

POLAND: EKSTRAKLASA - ROUND 22

Date: 26 February 2024, Monday

Location: Respect Energy Stadium (Grodzisk Wielkopolski)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Warta Poznań		Radomiak Radom

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.1
	2.45	2.95	3
	2.4	3	3.1	Watch
	2.5	3	3.2
	2.59	2.95	3.26
	2.3	3	2.88
	2.44	3.04	3.06	Watch
	2.44	2.9	2.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.53)	2.98 ↓ (3.1)	3.07 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warta Poznań
38.3%

Draw
31.3%

Radomiak Radom
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

27.5%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warta Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Radomiak Radom might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Radomiak Radom could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	70%	0%

Warta Poznań - Radomiak Radom Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Warta will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grobelny J. (G) 4. Stavropoulos D. 44. Szymonowicz D. (C) 14. Tiru B. 2. Bartkowski J. 16. Luis M. 6. Zurawski M. 22. Matuszewski K. 20. Mezghrani M. 47. Prikryl T. 7. Szmyt K.	1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 13. Grzesik J. 29. Rossi R. (C) 4. Vuskovic L. 33. Abramowicz D. 8. Luizao 77. Donis C. 7. Semedo L. 27. Wolski R. 20. Machado L. 22. Jardel
Substitutes
28. Borowski F. 9. Eppel M. 3. Kielb J. 15. Kopczynski M. 21. Kupczak M. 1. Lis A. (G) 25. Paszkowski J. 77. Savic S. 29. Vizinger D.	16. Cichocki M. 14. Jakubik D. 66. Jordao B. 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 18. Okoniewski K. 11. Pik D. 21. Snopczynski J. 70. Vagner
Coaches
Szulczek D.	Kedziorek M.

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 14 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Warta won 2.

Recent matches Warta is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Radomiak is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Warta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Warta: Przybylko K. (Injury) Zrelak A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Radomiak: Alves R. (Injury) Kobylak G. (Red Card)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Warta won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 20-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Warta won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warta Poznań
Club Friendly
23.02.24	Warta Poznań - Noteć Czarnków	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.02.24	Ruch Chorzów - Warta Poznań	0:0 ✺
11.02.24	Warta Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.02.24	Warta Poznań - Shkendija Tetovo	0:1 ✺
27.01.24	Warta Poznań - Slovan Liberec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTWLT
- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.02.24	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	0:4 ✺
10.02.24	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	6:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.02.24	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	2:1 ✺
28.01.24	Radomiak Radom - Napredak Kruševac	0:1 ✺
21.01.24	Radomiak Radom - Novi Pazar	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
19.08.23	Radomiak Radom - Warta Poznań	3:2
15.05.23	Warta Poznań - Radomiak Radom	1:2
31.10.22	Radomiak Radom - Warta Poznań	2:3
20.02.22	Warta Poznań - Radomiak Radom	3:1
20.08.21	Radomiak Radom - Warta Poznań	1:0
Polish Division 1
31.07.20	Warta Poznań - Radomiak Radom	2:0
02.03.20	Warta Poznań - Radomiak Radom	3:0

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