Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 32

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków)

Referee: Stefanski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Cracovia		Radomiak Radom

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.82	3.4	4.15	Watch
	1.84	3.58	4.8
	1.88	3.37	4.57	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4
	1.86	3.54	4.3	Watch
	2.13	2.98	3.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.13)	3.35 ↑ (2.98)	4.18 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cracovia
49.9%

Draw
27.8%

Radomiak Radom
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

29.7%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

30.1%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cracovia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cracovia's performance.

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Radomiak Radom might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cracovia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Radomiak Radom could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	17.6%	17.6%

Cracovia - Radomiak Radom Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Cracovia will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Radomiak will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cracovia: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cracovia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Madejski S. (G) 66. Wojcik O. 4. Henriksson G. 21. Sutalo B. 79. Pila D. 43. Klich M. (C) 6. Al Ammari A. 39. Perkovic M. 14. Hasic A. 18. Zahiroleslam K. 7. Praszelik M.	1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 14. Kingue S. 26. Dieguez A. 13. Grzesik J. (C) 77. Donis C. 21. Balde E. 82. Luquinhas 6. Baro R. 7. Lopes V. 15. Tapsoba A.
Substitutes
29. Batoum J. 9. Bogacz W. 99. Charpentier G. 10. Dominguez M. 15. Glik K. 91. Golonka K. (G) 70. Kameri D. 20. Knap K. 17. Minchev M. 27. Ravas H. (G) 11. Sans P. 19. Tabisz M.	10. Alves R. 2. Camara I. 16. Cichocki M. 75. Jerke M. (G) 20. Joao Pedro 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 25. Maurides 19. Soumah S. 17. Zabicki A.
Coaches
Grzelak B.	Baltazar B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Pila D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Praszelik M. 🟨,
57', Henriksson G. 🟨,
60', Tapsoba A. 🟥,
63', Balde E. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
63', Lopes V. ↓, Soumah S. ↑,
66', Praszelik M. ↓, Minchev M. ↑,
66', Pila D. ↓, Charpentier G. ↑,
68', Minchev M. 🟨,
78', Baro R. ↓, Cichocki M. ↑,
80', Zahiroleslam K. ↓, Sans P. ↑,
81', Luquinhas 🟨,
83', Dieguez A. 🟨,
90', Sutalo B. ↓, Glik K. ↑,
90+1', Glik K. 🟨,
90+2', Soumah S. ↓, Maurides ↑,
90+3', Cichocki M. 🟨,
90+4', Kingue S. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cracovia won 1.

Cracovia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Radomiak is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Radomiak may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cracovia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Cracovia: Bogacz W. (Broken collarbone) Kakabadze O. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Traore B. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Radomiak: Blasco J. (Red Card) Wilson-Esbrand J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cracovia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cracovia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 2.2:1).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Radomiak Radom: 0.83% Cracovia: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Cracovia	10	3	2	5	12:15	-3	11
15	Radomiak Radom	9	2	2	5	7:20	-13	8

Last Results with these Odds

Radomiak Radom - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 28.74%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.05.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Cracovia - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Cracovia - Arka Gdynia	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Górnik Zabrze - Cracovia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTLTL
- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.05.26	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Wisła Płock - Radomiak Radom	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Radomiak Radom - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Radomiak Radom	0:2 ET ✺
06.04.26	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
07.11.25	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia	3:0
08.03.25	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	1:2
31.08.24	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia	2:1
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	0:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.02.24	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	6:0
05.08.23	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia	0:1
15.04.23	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	3:0

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