Match Info

National League - Championship Group - Round 10

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Fraser Park (Lower Hutt)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Wellington Phoenix 2		Birkenhead United

	1	X	2
	4.65	4.65	1.47
	4.57	4.91	1.5
	4.84	4.59	1.53	Watch
	5.11	4.65	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.79 ↓ (4.84)	4.7 ↑ (4.59)	1.49 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix 2
19.1%

Draw
19.5%

Birkenhead United
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.2%

20.2%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

19.4%

63%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Birkenhead United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix 2 than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birkenhead United than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Wellington Phoenix 2 - Birkenhead United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 1 - 2, ⚽,
65', 2 - 2, ⚽,
76', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 10 and 8)

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Birkenhead is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 3:3).

Including home match between the teams, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix 2
New Zealand National League
21.11.25	Auckland City - Wellington Phoenix 2	2:0 ✺
14.11.25	Wellington Phoenix 2 - Coastal Spirit	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Western Springs - Wellington Phoenix 2	3:0 ✺
24.10.25	Wellington Phoenix 2 - Miramar Rangers	1:4 ✺
17.10.25	Auckland United - Wellington Phoenix 2	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLLT
- Birkenhead United
New Zealand National League
22.11.25	Birkenhead United - Miramar Rangers	1:4 ✺
14.11.25	Auckland United - Birkenhead United	3:2 ✺
08.11.25	Birkenhead United - Christchurch United	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Auckland FC 2 - Birkenhead United	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Birkenhead United - Wellington Olympic	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand National League
26.10.24	Birkenhead United - Wellington Phoenix 2	4:2
26.11.22	Wellington Phoenix 2 - Birkenhead United	4:2

Wellington Phoenix 2 - Birkenhead United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide