Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Netherlands	ESPN 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Willem II		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	4	4.33	1.75	Watch
	3.90	4.10	1.80
	4.3	3.9	1.78
	4.31	4.4	1.78
	4.12	4.33	1.73	Watch
	4.25	4.1	1.75
	4.08	4.42	1.78	Watch
	4	4.2	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.12 ↑ (3.75)	4.22 ↑ (4.1)	1.77 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
23.2%

Draw
22.6%

Heerenveen
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

23%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

22.9%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	6.7%	86.7%

Willem II - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: Heerenveen will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. de Leeuw K. (G) 5. ter Avest H. 3. Stam F. 4. Hoogma J. (C) 24. Tjoe a On N. 8. Boogaard K. 6. Twigt C. 50. Gurbuz E. 19. van Aalst U. 7. Slory J. 9. Haen D.	22. Klaverboer B. (G) 45. Braude O. 4. Kersten S. 3. Willemsen M. (C) 19. Zagaritis V. 36. Courtens N. 6. Proper D. 20. Trenskow J. 10. Meerveld R. 7. Rivera M. 9. Vente D.
Substitutes
2. Ciranni A. 15. Et Taibi A. 40. Iglesias D. 41. Kotte T. (G) 83. Lemmens M. 14. Mathijsen J. 21. van der Steen W. (G) 48. van Esdonk J. 22. van Loon P. 28. Verheydt T.	23. Bladi D. 8. Brouwers L. 17. Hopland N. 29. Machine L. 44. Noppert A. (G) 11. Oyen L. 28. Petrov H. 47. Schaken K. 41. Scholten J. 30. Schreuder T. (G) 14. Smans L.
Coaches
Stegeman J.	Veldman R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Hoogma J. ↓, Lemmens M. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, van Aalst U. ⚽, Tjoe a On N. (A),
62', Gurbuz E. ↓, van Loon P. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Trenskow J. ⚽, Vente D. (A),
69', Courtens N. ↓, Brouwers L. ↑,
69', Meerveld R. ↓, Smans L. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Braude O. ⚽, Smans L. (A),
82', 2 - 2, Haen D. ⚽, Twigt C. (A),
85', Tjoe a On N. ↓, Ciranni A. ↑,
85', Twigt C. ↓, Et Taibi A. ↑,
85', Rivera M. ↓, Oyen L. ↑,
87', Boogaard K. ↓, Verheydt T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 1.

Willem II has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Heerenveen is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Willem II may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Willem II has had a series of home games.

In this match, Heerenveen is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Willem II: Culum A. (Foot Injury) Didillon Hodl T. (Hamstring Injury) Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Schuurman J. (Knock) Zarrouk A. (Surgery)

There will not play in Heerenveen: Egbring M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:37. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Willem II won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6:20	-14	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
15.08.26	Willem II - NEC Nijmegen	1:4 ✺
08.08.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Willem II	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Willem II - OFI	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Willem II - KV Mechelen	1:0 ✺
11.07.26	Willem II - FC Eindhoven	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLWWT
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
22.08.26	Heerenveen - Zwolle	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Ajax - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
09.08.26	Heerenveen - Twente	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Heerenveen - Volos	3:2 ✺
17.07.26	Club Brugge - Heerenveen	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
04.04.25	Heerenveen - Willem II	3:1
08.12.24	Willem II - Heerenveen	1:2
05.03.22	Willem II - Heerenveen	0:0
21.11.21	Heerenveen - Willem II	2:1
13.03.21	Willem II - Heerenveen	3:1
12.09.20	Heerenveen - Willem II	2:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
22.01.20	Heerenveen - Willem II	3:2 penalties

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