Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 16

Date: 17 December 2024, Tuesday


	Winchester City		Basingstoke Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.8
	2.14	3.55	2.85
	2.13	3.78	2.85
	2.2	3.78	2.88	Watch
	2.1	3.5	2.8
	2.14	3.52	2.87
	2.14	3.55	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.5)	3.58 ↑ (3.49)	2.84 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Winchester City
42.6%

Draw
25.4%

Basingstoke Town
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

25.9%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

25.1%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Winchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Winchester City's performance.

Basingstoke Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Basingstoke Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Winchester City than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Winchester City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basingstoke Town than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Winchester City - Basingstoke Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
4', 0 - 1, Peart B. ⚽,
19', Reid G. 🟥,
34', 0 - 2, Clark J. ⚽,
38', 1 - 2, Hill I. (Pen),
45+5', 1 - 3, Ferdinand L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 2 - 3, Hill I. ⚽,
65', Wright T. 🟥,
90+8', 2 - 4, Le Paih L. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 and 7).

Recent matches Winchester is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Basingstoke is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Winchester won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 2:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Winchester won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Last Results with these Odds

Basingstoke Town - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 37.83%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Winchester City
English Southern League South Division
14.12.24	Winchester City - Bracknell Town	0:0 ✺
30.11.24	Sholing - Winchester City	0:1 ✺
23.11.24	Winchester City - Havant & Waterlooville	1:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
16.11.24	Winchester City - Sittingbourne	1:2 penalties ✺
English Southern League South Division
09.11.24	Frome Town - Winchester City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLLW
- Basingstoke Town
English Southern League South Division
14.12.24	Basingstoke Town - Wimborne Town	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Havant & Waterlooville - Basingstoke Town	5:1 ✺
23.11.24	Basingstoke Town - Tiverton Town	1:3 ✺
12.11.24	Chertsey Town - Basingstoke Town	3:0 ✺
09.11.24	Basingstoke Town - Poole Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
27.01.24	Basingstoke Town - Winchester City	0:2
26.09.23	Winchester City - Basingstoke Town	2:1

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