Match Info

National League - Round 8

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Sussex Transport Community Stadium (Worthing)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Worthing		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.70	2.88
	2.10	3.40	2.85
	2.12	3.55	3.00
	2.20	3.77	3.07
	2.19	3.64	2.96	Watch
	2.17	3.70	2.95
	2.15	3.79	2.94
	2.15	3.65	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.18)	3.65 ↑ (3.45)	2.95 (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Worthing
43.2%

Draw
25.4%

Hornchurch
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

26.7%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

26.6%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Worthing has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Worthing than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Worthing - Hornchurch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Seymour T. (G) 6. Moore J. 12. Ransom H. 28. Waller C. 2. Colbran J. (C) 4. Wadham J. 15. Aguiar R. 11. Nathaniel-George A. 3. Adjetey-Brew C. 7. Coleman De-Graft R. 24. Kendall C.	1. Nasta A. (G) 12. Kizzi J. 3. Inniss R. 6. Dallison T. 19. Ling S. 4. Powell J. 8. Wraight T. (C) 26. Rowe A. 25. Bracking M. 11. Sandat H. 9. Hearn H.
Substitutes
25. Boddy H. 32. De La Cruz G. (G) 19. Godziemski O. 10. Hutchinson D. 16. Packham S. 18. Spicer O. 27. Young J.	13. Byrne R. (G) 22. Edwards F. 15. Ferguson N. 14. Pegrum C. 21. Poleon D. 7. Walker J. 17. Yearwood A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Aguiar R. ⚽, Kendall C. (A),
45', Sandat H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hearn H. ↓, Walker J. ↑,
50', Rowe A. 🟨,
58', Aguiar R. 🟨,
78', Wraight T. ↓, Ferguson N. ↑,
82', Nathaniel-George A. ↓, Hutchinson D. ↑,
82', Adjetey-Brew C. ↓, Packham S. ↑,
87', Rowe A. ↓, Poleon D. ↑,
89', Kizzi J. 🟨,
90+1', Wadham J. ↓, Young J. ↑,
90+3', Kendall C. ↓, Godziemski O. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Worthing won 1.

Recent form of Worthing has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hornchurch's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Worthing could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Worthing won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Worthing won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Hornchurch - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.17%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Worthing FC
English National League
12.09.26	Worthing - Barrow	2:2 ✺
English National League Cup
08.09.26	Worthing - Norwich City U21	0:1 penalties ✺
English National League
05.09.26	Fylde - Worthing	2:2 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Worthing - Boreham Wood	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Tamworth - Worthing	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLTLL
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League
12.09.26	Halifax Town - Hornchurch	3:0 ✺
English National League Cup
08.09.26	Hornchurch - Ipswich Town U21	3:0 ✺
English National League
05.09.26	Hornchurch - Forest Green Rovers	0:1 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Boston United - Hornchurch	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Hornchurch - Woking	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
28.02.26	Hornchurch - Worthing	2:1
29.11.25	Worthing - Hornchurch	5:0
25.03.25	Hornchurch - Worthing	1:0
07.09.24	Worthing - Hornchurch	0:0
English Isthmian League Premier Division
22.01.22	Worthing - Hornchurch	1:1
16.11.21	Hornchurch - Worthing	1:3
17.08.19	Worthing - Hornchurch	0:6

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