Match Info

Jia League - Round 24

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, ZhiBo8


	Yanbian Longding		Chongqing Tongliang Long

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.3	3	2.1
	3.63	3.1	2.19
	3.26	3.06	2.26	Watch
	3.25	3.3	2.18	Watch
	4.2	3.6	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↓ (4.16)	3.21 ↓ (3.55)	2.09 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yanbian Longding
26.4%

Draw
29%

Chongqing Tongliang Long
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

25.5%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

24.7%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yanbian Longding has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Chongqing Tongliang Long has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chongqing Tongliang Long might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yanbian Longding than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chongqing Tongliang Long than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chongqing Tongliang Long could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Yanbian Longding - Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Kou Jiahao (G) 16. Xu Wenguang 5. Domingos J. 15. Xu Jizu 17. Piao Shihao (C) 32. Li Da 20. Jin Taiyan 6. Li Qiang 14. Li Long 10. Brown F. 29. Ukachukwu P.	31. Wu Zitong (G) 38. Ruan Qilong 4. Sadauskas R. 3. Zhang Yingkai 24. Liu Mingshi 16. Zhang Zhixiong 8. Li Zhenquan 26. He Xiaoqiang 9. Leonardo 14. Huang Xiyang 7. Xiang Yuwang (C)
Substitutes
19. Dong Jialin (G) 8. Han Guangmin 30. Huang Zhenfei 33. Hu Ziqian 18. Khedrup Lobsang 36. Li R. 1. Li Shengmin (G) 7. Li Shibin 23. Li Ximin 31. Qian Changjie 35. Wang Chengkuai 38. Wang Zihao	30. Bai Yutao 40. Carrillo J. 33. Cheng Yetong 5. Huang X. 22. Ma Yujun 17. Ng Y. H. 20. Osmanjan Abduhelil 15. Tong Zhicheng 2. Wang Wenxuan 27. Wu Yongqiang 1. Yao Haoyang (G) 23. Zhang Haixuan (G)
Coaches
Lee Ki-Hyung	Suay S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Sadauskas R. 🟨,
40', Zhang Zhixiong 🟨,
45+2', Li Da 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Liu Mingshi ↓, Bai Yutao ↑,
55', Huang Xiyang ↓, Wang Wenxuan ↑,
57', Jin Taiyan ↓, Huang Zhenfei ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Brown F. ⚽,
62', 2 - 0, Brown F. ⚽,
66', Zhang Zhixiong ↓, Carrillo J. ↑,
66', 3 - 0, Ukachukwu P. ⚽,
70', Li Da ↓, Hu Ziqian ↑,
79', Ukachukwu P. 🟨,
80', Ukachukwu P. ↓, Wang Zihao ↑,
82', Bai Yutao 🟨,
86', He Xiaoqiang ↓, Ng Y. H. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Chongqing is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Yanbian Longding won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Yanbian Longding won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yanbian Longding
Chinese Jia League
20.09.25	Shaanxi Union - Yanbian Longding	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Yanbian Longding - Ningbo Professional	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Shenzhen Juniors - Yanbian Longding	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Dalian Kun City - Yanbian Longding	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Yanbian Longding - Shijiazhuang Gongfu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWLTT
- Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chinese Jia League
21.09.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Guangdong GZ-Power	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Dingnan United - Chongqing Tongliang Long	3:1 ✺
17.08.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Nanjing City	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Nantong Zhiyun	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Shaanxi Union - Chongqing Tongliang Long	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
17.05.25	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Yanbian Longding	1:0
25.08.24	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Yanbian Longding	1:1
05.04.24	Yanbian Longding - Chongqing Tongliang Long	1:1

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