Match Info

National League - Round 13

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: York Community Stadium (York)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	York City		Scunthorpe United

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	4.75
	1.58	4.05	4.95
	1.59	4.26	5.17
	7.51	3.33	1.56	Watch
	1.59	3.98	4.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (1.59)	3.92 ↓ (4.01)	4.27 ↓ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

York City
42.5%

Draw
30%

Scunthorpe United
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

23.1%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

22.2%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that York City's form might have worsened.

Scunthorpe United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Scunthorpe United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for York City than the current prediction. (+18%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for York City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Scunthorpe United than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Scunthorpe United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

York City - Scunthorpe United Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. York will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - York (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - York (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. York (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Male H. (G) 28. Banks O. 21. Boateng H. 4. Fagan-Walcott M. 23. Felix J. 8. Hunt A. 3. Kitching M. 30. Newby A. 6. Palmer A. 10. Pearce O. 7. Sinclair T.	38. Mahady R. (G) 8. Beestin A. 6. Boyce A. (C) 33. Denton T. 5. Evans W. 17. Ewing O. 7. Howe D. 10. Roberts C. 11. Rowley J. 21. Starbuck J. 9. Whitehall D.
Substitutes
18. Batty D. 14. Brookes B. 2. Fallowfield R. 12. Grey J. 22. Olley G. 9. Stones J. 31. Sykes-Kenworthy G. (G)	4. Belehouan J. 22. Dawson J. 3. Horton B. 20. Scales K. 16. Sellars-Fleming T. 14. Ubaezuonu C. 25. Westbrooke Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Boyce A. 🟨,
35', Newby A. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 1, Beestin A. ⚽, Evans W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
63', Whitehall D. ↓, Dawson J. ↑,
63', Howe D. ↓, Sellars-Fleming T. ↑,
64', Sinclair T. ↓, Stones J. ↑,
64', Felix J. ↓, Grey J. ↑,
64', Banks O. ↓, Olley G. ↑,
67', Stones J. 🟨,
72', Denton T. ↓, Horton B. ↑,
72', Beestin A. ↓, Westbrooke Z. ↑,
77', Boateng H. ↓, Batty D. ↑,
81', Roberts C. ↓, Belehouan J. ↑,
83', 0 - 2, Ewing O. (Pen),
85', Rowley J. 🟨,
90', Newby A. ↓, Brookes B. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 2, Pearce O. ⚽,
90+9', 1 - 3, Sellars-Fleming T. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

York is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Scunthorpe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Scunthorpe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, York is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, York won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, York won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- York City
English National League
27.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - York City	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0 ✺
20.09.25	York City - Solihull Moors	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Braintree Town - York City	2:3 ✺
09.09.25	York City - Tamworth	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWLWW
- Scunthorpe United
English National League
27.09.25	Southend United - Scunthorpe United	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Boreham Wood	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Truro City	4:0 ✺
English National League Cup
16.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Leeds United U21	1:3 ✺
English National League
13.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - Scunthorpe United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
28.03.23	York City - Scunthorpe United	0:0
17.09.22	Scunthorpe United - York City	1:1
Club Friendly
12.07.17	York City - Scunthorpe United	2:2
English League Two
03.05.14	Scunthorpe United - York City	2:2
29.10.13	York City - Scunthorpe United	4:1

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