Match Info

National League - Round 11

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: York Community Stadium (York)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	York City		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.3
	1.95	3.55	3.45
	1.96	3.68	3.71
	1.00	19.83	25.00	Watch
	1.93	3.48	3.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.85)	6.83 ↑ (3.67)	7.82 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

York City
67.6%

Draw
17.3%

Carlisle United
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

25.2%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

24.3%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in York City's performance.

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlisle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for York City than the current prediction. (-15.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with York City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

York City - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. York will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for York: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. York (votes: 1 - 20%). Carlisle (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Male H. (G) 21. Boateng H. 4. Fagan-Walcott M. 23. Felix J. 12. Grey J. 5. Howe C. 8. Hunt A. 3. Kitching M. 30. Newby A. 10. Pearce O. 7. Sinclair T.	1. Breeze G. (G) 29. Armstrong L. 2. Davies A. 18. Ellis J. 20. Gilliead A. 10. Linney R. 37. Macadam H. 26. Mugabi B. 15. Murray S. 4. Thomas T. (C) 16. Wearne S.
Substitutes
28. Banks O. 18. Batty D. 14. Brookes B. 2. Fallowfield R. 6. Palmer A. 9. Stones J. 31. Sykes-Kenworthy G. (G)	5. Feeney M. 24. Grant J. 21. Jones J. 9. Kelly G. 25. Lewis H. (G) 11. Luamba J. 8. Whelan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Fagan-Walcott M. ⚽, Pearce O. (A),
29', Thomas T. 🟨,
39', 2 - 0, Pearce O. (Pen),
39', Breeze G. 🟨,
44', 3 - 0, Pearce O. ⚽, Boateng H. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 4 - 0, Newby A. ⚽, Grey J. (A),
51', Grey J. 🟨,
56', Ellis J. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
60', Gilliead A. 🟨,
61', Boateng H. ↓, Batty D. ↑,
61', Sinclair T. ↓, Brookes B. ↑,
65', Hunt A. 🟨,
65', Murray S. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
67', Linney R. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,
68', Wearne S. ↓, Feeney M. ↑,
70', Brookes B. 🟨,
73', Pearce O. ↓, Stones J. ↑,
73', Grey J. ↓, Fallowfield R. ↑,
80', Newby A. ↓, Banks O. ↑,
82', Armstrong L. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
86', 5 - 0, Stones J. ⚽,
90+1', Whelan C. 🟨,
90+2', Feeney M. 🟨,
90+4', Stones J. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

York may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

York is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, York won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, York won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

York City - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50.02%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- York City
English National League
20.09.25	York City - Solihull Moors	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Braintree Town - York City	2:3 ✺
09.09.25	York City - Tamworth	4:0 ✺
06.09.25	Yeovil Town - York City	1:3 ✺
25.08.25	Woking - York City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWT
- Carlisle United
English National League
20.09.25	Altrincham - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Carlisle United - Truro City	3:0 ✺
03.09.25	Brackley Town - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Sutton United - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
23.01.16	Carlisle United - York City	1:1
19.09.15	York City - Carlisle United	2:2
14.03.15	York City - Carlisle United	0:0
28.12.14	Carlisle United - York City	0:3

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