Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: The New Lawn (Nailsworth)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Forest Green Rovers		York City

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	2.8
	2.32	3.35	2.82
	2.29	3.53	3.02
	2.80	2.47	3.19	Watch
	2.33	3.41	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.36)	3.21 ↓ (3.25)	2.94 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forest Green Rovers
39%

Draw
29.2%

York City
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

27.9%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

27.3%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forest Green Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for York City than the current prediction. (+1%)

Forest Green Rovers - York City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Forest Green (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Forest Green (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Forest Green (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McNicholas L. (G) 8. Haughton N. 5. Inniss R. 11. Knowles T. 7. McAllister K. 6. Mendy L. 29. Mitchell K. 18. Moore I. 15. Moore-Taylor J. (C) 21. Pemberton T. 25. Whitwell H.	1. Male H. (G) 21. Boateng H. 4. Fagan-Walcott M. 23. Felix J. 12. Grey J. 8. Hunt A. 3. Kitching M. 30. Newby A. 6. Palmer A. 10. Pearce O. 7. Sinclair T.
Substitutes
26. Balagizi J. 16. Bunker H. 24. Buyabu J. 14. Clarke J. 3. Kengni N. 37. Marquez J. 12. Pagel F. (G)	28. Banks O. 18. Batty D. 14. Brookes B. 2. Fallowfield R. 22. Olley G. 9. Stones J. 31. Sykes-Kenworthy G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Mitchell K. ⚽, Pemberton T. (A),
14', 1 - 1, Pearce O. (Pen),
45+3', Pemberton T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Haughton N. ↓, Buyabu J. ↑,
46', Knowles T. ↓, Kengni N. ↑,
60', Kitching M. 🟨,
65', Moore I. ↓, Balagizi J. ↑,
69', Grey J. ↓, Banks O. ↑,
69', Newby A. ↓, Olley G. ↑,
76', Sinclair T. ↓, Brookes B. ↑,
81', Whitwell H. ↓, Bunker H. ↑,
90', Felix J. ↓, Fallowfield R. ↑,
90', Boateng H. ↓, Batty D. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Forest Green has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

York is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Forest Green may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Forest Green won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Forest Green won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Forest Green Rovers - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 38.51%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forest Green Rovers
English National League
23.09.25	Altrincham - Forest Green Rovers	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Woking - Forest Green Rovers	0:2 ✺
English National League Cup
16.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	3:2 ✺
English National League
13.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - Scunthorpe United	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Forest Green Rovers - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWTW
- York City
English National League
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0 ✺
20.09.25	York City - Solihull Moors	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Braintree Town - York City	2:3 ✺
09.09.25	York City - Tamworth	4:0 ✺
06.09.25	Yeovil Town - York City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
08.03.25	York City - Forest Green Rovers	1:1
16.11.24	Forest Green Rovers - York City	2:0
29.04.17	York City - Forest Green Rovers	2:2
20.08.16	Forest Green Rovers - York City	2:1
28.04.12	York City - Forest Green Rovers	N/A

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