Match Info

Division 2 - Round 11

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: ArcelorMittal Park (Sosnowiec)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Zagłębie Sosnowiec		GKS Jastrzębie

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.25	6.7
	1.38	4.87	7.04
	1.35	5.01	6.81	Watch
	1.39	4.1	7.39	Watch
	1.34	5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.3)	4.65 ↓ (5.4)	7.19 ↑ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Sosnowiec
67.4%

Draw
19.8%

GKS Jastrzębie
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.2%

16.9%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.7%

15.7%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Sosnowiec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

GKS Jastrzębie has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Sosnowiec than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Zagłębie Sosnowiec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Jastrzębie than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Jastrzębie Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - GKS Jastrzębie (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. GKS Jastrzębie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kabala M. (G) 6. Broniewski M. 23. Checinski B. 22. Dziedzic I. 8. Gogol P. 21. Matras M. (C) 45. Pawlowski J. 7. Ronnberg L. 9. Shikavka Y. 17. Skora K. 43. Szot D.	1. Molga M. (G) 22. Baranowicz B. 5. Bednorz K. 23. Bykowski M. 14. Gosciniarek K. 15. Gromek W. 17. Koczy K. 6. Maszkowski S. 9. Matysek S. 16. Mroczko S. (C) 2. Tomal J.
Substitutes
10. Agbor E. 37. Gryszkiewicz A. 3. Janiszewski G. 20. Pawlusinski M. 92. Rakels D. 87. Siuta K. (G) 11. Snopczynski B. 16. Wasiluk B. 77. Zawojski B.	10. Gebala P. 12. Herman S. (G) 11. Jakuc O. 18. Kakolewski I. 3. Kriegler B. 19. Sawicki W. 13. Zielinski B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Maszkowski S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bykowski M. ↓, Jakuc O. ↑,
46', Mroczko S. ↓, Kriegler B. ↑,
59', Gosciniarek K. 🟨,
60', Tomal J. ↓, Zielinski B. ↑,
62', Dziedzic I. ↓, Agbor E. ↑,
62', Koczy K. 🟨,
64', Agbor E. 🟥,
71', Gosciniarek K. 🟨,
76', Koczy K. 🟨,
77', Gogol P. ↓, Pawlusinski M. ↑,
78', Maszkowski S. ↓, Kakolewski I. ↑,
83', Matysek S. ↓, Sawicki W. ↑,
90+7', 1 - 0, Skora K. ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 3.

Zagłębie Sosnowiec is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

GKS Jastrzębie has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Zagłębie Sosnowiec may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Zagłębie Sosnowiec is the obvious favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Sosnowiec
Polish Division 2
29.09.25	ŁKS Łódź II - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:3 ✺
19.09.25	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Swit Skolwin	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Rekord Bielsko-Biała - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Warta Poznań - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Olimpia Grudziądz	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWLT
- GKS 1962 Jastrzębie
Polish Division 2
28.09.25	GKS Jastrzębie - Resovia Rzeszów	1:2 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Flota Świnoujście - GKS Jastrzębie	3:2 penalties ✺
Polish Division 2
20.09.25	Olimpia Grudziądz - GKS Jastrzębie	3:0 ✺
17.09.25	Hutnik - GKS Jastrzębie	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	GKS Jastrzębie - Chojniczanka Chojnice	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2
27.04.25	GKS Jastrzębie - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:0
28.09.24	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Jastrzębie	1:0
Polish Division 1
02.04.22	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Jastrzębie	2:1
17.09.21	GKS Jastrzębie - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:1
22.05.21	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Jastrzębie	3:0
28.11.20	GKS Jastrzębie - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	2:1
20.06.20	GKS Jastrzębie - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:3

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