Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 17

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Zamudio		Aretxabaleta

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.78	2.82
	2.55	2.93	2.83
	2.5	2.75	2.8
	2.52	2.8	2.8
	2.45	3.1	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.52)	2.87 ↑ (2.81)	2.79 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zamudio
36.1%

Draw
31.5%

Aretxabaleta
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

32.1%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

31%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zamudio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Aretxabaleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zamudio than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Zamudio - Aretxabaleta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Garai O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Rojas U. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 11).

Zamudio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aretxabaleta is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	UD Aretxabaleta	5	2	2	1	4:3	1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zamudio SD
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Zarautz KE - Zamudio	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Santurtzi - Zamudio	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Zamudio - Real Sociedad C	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Pasaia - Zamudio	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Zamudio - Lagun Onak	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLTTW
- UD Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Aretxabaleta - Santurtzi	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Real Sociedad C - Aretxabaleta	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Aretxabaleta - Pasaia	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Lagun Onak - Aretxabaleta	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Aretxabaleta - Deusto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL

Zamudio - Aretxabaleta: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide