Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 25

Date: 30 January 2023, Monday

Location: La Romareda (Zaragoza)

Referee: Gonzalez Esteban J. A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Finland	CMore MAX
Greece	Nova Sports
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Zaragoza		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	5	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4.33
	1.8	3.2	5
	1.8	3.3	4.5
	1.79	3.35	5.56
	1.82	3.34	4.8	Watch
	1.76	3.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.91)	3.28 ↓ (3.43)	4.88 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zaragoza
52.2%

Draw
28.6%

Ponferradina
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

27%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

26.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zaragoza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponferradina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zaragoza than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.8%	25.6%	11.6%

Zaragoza - Ponferradina Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Zaragoza will win (votes: 27 - 62.8%). Ponferradina will win (votes: 5 - 11.6%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 25.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zaragoza: 48.4% – 77.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Zaragoza has the most likely position - 13 (8.05%), has project points - 55, has currently - 29, has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 20 (15.19%), has project points - 46, has currently - 25, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 31, importance 37, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Zaragoza won 2.

Recent matches Zaragoza is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ponferradina is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Zaragoza is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Zaragoza won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 20-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Zaragoza won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Zaragoza
Spanish LaLiga2
22.01.23	Sporting de Gijón - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
14.01.23	Villarreal B - Zaragoza	2:3 ✺
08.01.23	Zaragoza - Mirandés	0:0 ✺
19.12.22	Leganés - Zaragoza	2:1 ✺
10.12.22	Zaragoza - Huesca	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWTLW
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
21.01.23	Ponferradina - Eibar	0:1 ✺
14.01.23	Tenerife - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
06.01.23	Ponferradina - Villarreal B	2:1 ✺
17.12.22	Mirandés - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.12.22	Ponferradina - Atlético Madrid	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
11.09.22	Ponferradina - Zaragoza	1:2
09.01.22	Ponferradina - Zaragoza	0:0
21.10.21	Zaragoza - Ponferradina	1:1
29.01.21	Zaragoza - Ponferradina	1:0
22.11.20	Ponferradina - Zaragoza	2:1
20.07.20	Zaragoza - Ponferradina	2:1
25.08.19	Ponferradina - Zaragoza	1:1

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