Match Info

Paulista U20 - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday


	Água Santa U20		Capivariano U20

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.00	2.40
	2.85	3	2.28
	3.16	2.89	2.3
	2.86	3.01	2.44	Watch
	3.05	2.75	2.25
	2.69	3.36	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.2)	3 ↓ (3.3)	2.35 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Água Santa U20
31.4%

Draw
30.1%

Capivariano U20
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

27%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

25.8%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Água Santa U20's form might have worsened.

Capivariano U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Capivariano U20's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa U20 than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Água Santa U20, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Capivariano U20 than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Capivariano U20, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Água Santa U20 - Capivariano U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
68', 0 - 1, ⚽,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6th in the Promotion ~ Paulista U20 Playoffs1/16~finals) and 7th in the Promotion ~ Paulista U20 Playoffs1/16~finals)).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Água Santa U20 has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:1 (averaging 1.5:0.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Água Santa U20
Brazilian Paulista U20
19.09.26	Capivariano U20 - Água Santa U20	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Red Bull Bragantino U20 - Água Santa U20	8:0 ✺
08.09.26	Água Santa U20 - Palmeiras U20	1:2 ✺
21.08.26	Água Santa U20 - Tanabi U20	1:0 ✺
11.08.26	Capivariano U20 - Água Santa U20	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLLWW
- Capivariano U20
Brazilian Paulista U20
19.09.26	Capivariano U20 - Água Santa U20	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Capivariano U20 - Tanabi U20	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Mauá U20 - Capivariano U20	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Flamengo de Guarulhos U20 - Capivariano U20	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Capivariano U20 - Guarani U20	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Paulista U20
19.09.26	Capivariano U20 - Água Santa U20	0:1
11.08.26	Capivariano U20 - Água Santa U20	1:2

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