Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mexico City, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 April 2025, Thursday


	Adrian Mannarino		Nicolas Mejia

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	2.04	1.69	Watch
	2.1	1.69
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	2.04	1.71	Watch
	2.04	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.68)	1.75 ↓ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adrian Mannarino
46.8%

Nicolas Mejia
53.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adrian Mannarino's form might have worsened.

Nicolas Mejia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nicolas Mejia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adrian Mannarino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nicolas Mejia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.8%	0%	93.2%

Adrian Mannarino - Nicolas Mejia Predictions

Users Predictions: Nicolas Mejia will win (41 of 43 users predict this - 95.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.06% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nicolas Mejia will win (27 of 27 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mannarino is ranked ATP: 134. Mejia is ranked ATP: 256.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Mejia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Challenger
08.04.25	Adrian Mannarino - Aidan Mayo	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
03.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Adrian Mannarino - Corentin Denolly	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Adrian Mannarino - Naoki Nakagawa	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.03.25	Adrian Mannarino - Dmitry Popko	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLWL
- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
08.04.25	Nicolas Mejia - Maxime Cressy	2:0 ✺
31.03.25	Mark Lajal - Nicolas Mejia	2:0 ✺
24.03.25	Nicolas Mejia - Juan Alejandro Hernandez	1:2 ✺
13.03.25	Nicolas Mejia - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
12.03.25	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Nicolas Mejia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLLLW

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