Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Champaign, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 November 2025, Wednesday


	Aidan McHugh		Murphy Cassone

	1	2
	3.5	1.29	Watch
	3.55	1.25	Watch
	4.2	1.24
	1.95	1.78	Watch
			Watch
	3.57	1.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.62)	1.36 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aidan McHugh
28.9%

Murphy Cassone
71.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aidan McHugh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aidan McHugh's form might have worsened.

Murphy Cassone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Murphy Cassone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aidan McHugh than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aidan McHugh, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Murphy Cassone than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Murphy Cassone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aidan McHugh - Murphy Cassone Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

McHugh is ranked ATP: 465. Cassone is ranked ATP: 245.

McHugh is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Cassone is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

McHugh may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cassone is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Cassone will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Murphy Cassone - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 64.49%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aidan McHugh
ATP Challenger
11.11.25	Aidan McHugh - Jeremy Zhang	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
09.11.25	Erik Arutiunian - Aidan McHugh	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Aidan McHugh - Ozan Baris	2:0 ✺
07.11.25	Matthew Forbes - Aidan McHugh	0:2 ✺
06.11.25	Petar Jovanovic - Aidan McHugh	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWW
- Murphy Cassone
ATP Challenger
10.11.25	Hoyoung Roh - Murphy Cassone	0:2 ✺
07.11.25	Murphy Cassone - Cedrik-Marcel Stebe	0:2 ✺
06.11.25	Nicolas Mejia - Murphy Cassone	1:2 ✺
04.11.25	Matias Soto - Murphy Cassone	0:2 ✺
03.11.25	Murphy Cassone - Alejandro Moreno	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWW

Aidan McHugh - Murphy Cassone: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide