Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open (Australia), hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	06:40	Max
Croatia	05:40	Max
Czech Republic	05:40	Max
Denmark	05:40	Max
Finland	06:40	Max
France	05:40	Max
Germany	05:40	Discovery+
Hungary	05:40	Max
Italy	05:40	Discovery+
Norway	05:40	MAX
Poland	05:40	Max
Romania	06:40	Max
Serbia	05:40	Max
Slovenia	05:40	Max
Sweden	05:40	Max
United Kingdom	04:40	Discovery+ UK


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	4	1.25	Watch
	4.1	1.22
	4.1	1.24
	3.91	1.25	Watch
	4	1.25
	4.54	1.24	Watch
	4.1	1.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.11 ↑ (3.2)	1.24 ↓ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
23.2%

Tommy Paul
76.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.8%

70.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

70.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's form might have worsened.

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tommy Paul's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tommy Paul, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Paul will win (votes: 15 - 65.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 66. Paul is ranked ATP: 11.

Recent matches Davidovich Fokina is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Paul is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Paul is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Davidovich Fokina won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:8 (average 1:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Australian Open
16.01.25	Jakub Mensik - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:3 ✺
15.01.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Felix Aliassime-Auger	3:2 ✺
13.01.25	Juncheng Shang - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Shang J. retired ✺
ATP Adelaide
07.01.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
06.01.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WW?LW
- Tommy Paul
ATP Australian Open
16.01.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Tommy Paul	0:3 ✺
15.01.25	Kei Nishikori - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
13.01.25	Christopher OConnell - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
10.01.25	Tommy Paul - Felix Aliassime-Auger	1:2 ✺
08.01.25	Tommy Paul - Rinky Hijikata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
01.09.23	Tommy Paul - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:1
ATP Miami
26.03.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Tommy Paul	0:2
ATP Australian Open
18.01.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Tommy Paul	2:3

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Vienna
30.10.26	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	✺

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Tommy Paul