Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Montevideo, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 November 2025, Thursday


	Alex Barrena		Christian Garin

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
			Watch
	2.95	1.35	Watch
	3.21	1.36
	3.05	1.32	Watch
			Watch
	2.99	1.34	Watch
	2.75	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.68)	1.36 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Barrena
31.2%

Christian Garin
68.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

65.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Barrena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Alex Barrena - Christian Garin Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 2nd Set - Garin (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Garin (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Christian Garin will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Barrena is ranked ATP: 176. Garin is ranked ATP: 105.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Barrena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Garin might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Christian Garin - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 65.61%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Barrena
ATP Challenger
11.11.25	Alex Barrena - Tristan Boyer	2:1 ✺
06.11.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Alex Barrena	2:1 ✺
04.11.25	Franco Roncadelli - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
31.10.25	Mariano Navone - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
29.10.25	Gonzalo Villanueva - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWLW
- Christian Garin
ATP Challenger
11.11.25	Andrea Collarini - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
07.11.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
06.11.25	Ivan Gakhov - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
04.11.25	Timofey Skatov - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
28.10.25	Lautaro Midon - Christian Garin	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWW?

Alex Barrena - Christian Garin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide