Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Curitiba, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday


	Alex Barrena		Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

	1	2
	2.10	1.65
	2.23	1.62
	2.09	1.65	Watch
	2.12	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.28)	1.63 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Barrena
43.3%

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Barrena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Barrena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alex Barrena - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Barrena will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Barrena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Barrena is ranked ATP: 240., and Barrios Vera is ranked ATP: 137..

Barrena has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Barrios Vera has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Barrios Vera could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 59.69%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Barrena
ATP Challenger
27.09.26	Alex Barrena - Facundo Mena	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
25.09.26	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
22.09.26	Valentin Garay - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWWW
- Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Alexander Blockx - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	3:0 ✺
27.08.26	Daniel Rincon - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2 ✺
24.08.26	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWWL

Alex Barrena - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide