Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Porto 2, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 27 August 2025, Wednesday


	Alex Barrena		Nicolas Alvarez Varona

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.88	1.83	Watch
	1.85	1.98
	1.86	1.91	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.84	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.54)	1.88 ↓ (2.3)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Barrena
50.5%

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Barrena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alex Barrena's form might have worsened.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nicolas Alvarez Varona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Barrena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nicolas Alvarez Varona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Alex Barrena - Nicolas Alvarez Varona Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Alvarez Varona will win (votes: 7 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Barrena (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Alvarez Varona (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Alvarez Varona (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Barrena (votes: 2 - 50%). Alvarez Varona (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Barrena is ranked ATP: 228. Alvarez Varona is ranked ATP: 282.

Barrena has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alvarez Varona is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Barrena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Barrena
ATP Challenger
25.08.25	Alex Barrena - Christoph Negritu	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
19.08.25	Alex Barrena - Kimmer Coppejans	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.07.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Alex Barrena	Barrena A. retired ✺
29.07.25	Jonas Kucera - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
22.07.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WL?WL
- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ATP Challenger
25.08.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Robert Strombachs	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Matias Soto	Alvarez Varona N. retired ✺
27.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - George Loffhagen	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Aryan Shah - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	1:2 ✺
25.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Johannus Monday	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 W?LWW

Alex Barrena - Nicolas Alvarez Varona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide