Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Alex Bolt		Elias Ymer

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.46	2.55	Watch
	1.44	2.71	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.44	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.65)	2.63 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Bolt
64.4%

Elias Ymer
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Bolt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex Bolt's performance.

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elias Ymer might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Bolt than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Bolt that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elias Ymer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Alex Bolt - Elias Ymer Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bolt will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Ymer will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolt: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex Bolt will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bolt is ranked ATP: 169. Ymer is ranked ATP: 171.

Bolt has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ymer is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bolt is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Bolt - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Elias Ymer - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Bolt
ATP Challenger
03.01.26	Alex Bolt - Marc Polmans	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Alex Bolt - Rinky Hijikata	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Carl Emil Overbeck - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
26.11.25	Pavle Marinkov - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
24.11.25	Moerani Bouzige - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWW
- Elias Ymer
ATP Hong Kong
03.01.26	Elias Ymer - Laslo Djere	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.11.25	Elias Ymer - Mert Alkaya	1:2 ✺
27.11.25	Elias Ymer - Dragos Nicolae Cazacu	2:0 ✺
17.11.25	Kaylan Bigun - Elias Ymer	Ymer E. retired ✺
15.11.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLW?L

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