Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Busan, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday


	Alex Bolt		Rio Noguchi

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.61	2.17	Watch
	1.65	2.37
	1.62	2.16	Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.63	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.59)	2.19 (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Bolt
57.3%

Rio Noguchi
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Bolt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Rio Noguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Bolt than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alex Bolt - Rio Noguchi Predictions

Users Predictions: Alex Bolt will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bolt is ranked ATP: 154. Noguchi is ranked ATP: 215.

Now, both players are in good form.

Bolt may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Bolt won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Bolt
ATP Challenger
14.04.26	Alex Bolt - Tung-Lin Wu	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Alex Bolt - James McCabe	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
01.04.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Alex Bolt	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Alex Bolt - Yibing Wu	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	Alex Bolt - Andres Andrade	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWLWW
- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
14.04.26	Rio Noguchi - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Rio Noguchi - Clement Chidekh	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Rio Noguchi - Tung-Lin Wu	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Rio Noguchi - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:1 ✺
27.03.26	Rio Noguchi - Harry Wendelken	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
24.04.24	Rio Noguchi - Alex Bolt	1:2
ITF Tournaments
23.03.24	Alex Bolt - Rio Noguchi	2:0
07.02.23	Rio Noguchi - Alex Bolt	0:2

Alex Bolt - Rio Noguchi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide