Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Miami 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Alex Bolt		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
			Watch
	2.6	1.44
	2.74	1.49
	3.59	1.27	Watch
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.62	1.43	Watch
	2.58	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.58)	1.43 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Bolt
34%

Sho Shimabukuro
66%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

64%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Bolt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Bolt than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Bolt, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sho Shimabukuro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	0%	84.6%

Alex Bolt - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Users Predictions: Sho Shimabukuro will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sho Shimabukuro will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bolt is ranked ATP: 167. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 113.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Bolt may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Shimabukuro might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bolt won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Bolt
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Alex Bolt	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Tristan Schoolkate - Alex Bolt	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.02.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Alex Bolt	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Alex Bolt - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Darwin Blanch - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLWW
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Martin Landaluce - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Colton Smith - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.26	Yibing Wu - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
29.04.25	Alex Bolt - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2
14.05.23	Sho Shimabukuro - Alex Bolt	2:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Challenger
29.10.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	✺

Alex Bolt - Sho Shimabukuro