Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday


	Alexander Shevchenko		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.35	1.6	Watch
	2.31	1.68
	2.25	1.64	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.26	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (1.87)	1.64 ↓ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Shevchenko
41.7%

Sho Shimabukuro
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Shevchenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexander Shevchenko's form might have worsened.

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sho Shimabukuro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Shevchenko than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexander Shevchenko, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sho Shimabukuro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	0%	43.7%

Alexander Shevchenko - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Shevchenko will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Shimabukuro will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shevchenko: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alexander Shevchenko will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shevchenko is ranked ATP: 88. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 113.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Shimabukuro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shevchenko won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Shevchenko - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Shevchenko
ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Karen Khachanov	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Quentin Halys - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Alexander Shevchenko	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.02.26	Henri Squire - Alexander Shevchenko	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Daniil Glinka - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLW
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.26	Martin Landaluce - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Colton Smith - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.26	Yibing Wu - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Zachary Svajda - Sho Shimabukuro	Svajda Z. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Alexander Shevchenko	0:2

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