Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Acapulco, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	Adrian Mannarino		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.15	Watch
	1.72	2.1	Watch
	1.93	1.84	Watch
	1.73	2.1
	1.74	2.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.3)	2.06 ↓ (3.48)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adrian Mannarino
54.1%

Sho Shimabukuro
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.8%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adrian Mannarino's form might have worsened.

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sho Shimabukuro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adrian Mannarino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sho Shimabukuro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.7%	0%	77.3%

Adrian Mannarino - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Mannarino will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Shimabukuro will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimabukuro: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Games - Shimabukuro (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Mannarino (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sho Shimabukuro will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Mannarino (votes: 2 - 20%). Shimabukuro (votes: 8 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mannarino is ranked ATP: 51. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 130.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mannarino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mannarino could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Acapulco
24.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Eliot Spizzirri	Canceled ✺
ATP Dallas
12.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Adam Walton - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
08.02.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 ?LWLW
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Acapulco
22.02.26	Zachary Svajda - Sho Shimabukuro	Svajda Z. retired ✺
21.02.26	Rafael De Alba - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
16.02.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Adam Walton - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Benjamin Willwerth - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 ?WLWW

Adrian Mannarino - Sho Shimabukuro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide