Match Info
ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells - Qualification, hard - Semi-finalsDate: 2 March 2026, Monday
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Colton Smith |
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Sho Shimabukuro |
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- The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Colton Smith
50.7% | Sho Shimabukuro
49.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Colton Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)Sho Shimabukuro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (-9.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Colton Smith that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (+9.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sho Shimabukuro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Colton Smith - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Shimabukuro will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimabukuro: 29.6% – 90.4%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Smith (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Shimabukuro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Preview
Smith is ranked ATP: 138. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 130.Smith is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).In recent matches, Shimabukuro has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Shimabukuro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match. In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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