Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rotterdam, hard - Final

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hungary	Arena 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Prima Sport 5
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Alex De Minaur		Felix Aliassime-Auger

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.34	1.58	Watch
	2.42	1.63
	2.24	1.68	Watch
	2.38	1.57
	2.34	1.63	Watch
	2.4	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.04)	1.6 ↓ (1.79)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
40.5%

Felix Aliassime-Auger
59.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alex De Minaur's form might have worsened.

Felix Aliassime-Auger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Felix Aliassime-Auger's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felix Aliassime-Auger than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.3%	0%	65.7%

Alex De Minaur - Felix Aliassime Auger Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 11 - 32.4%). Aliassime-Auger will win (votes: 23 - 67.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aliassime-Auger: 51.9% – 83.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Aliassime-Auger (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 10 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 20.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Games - Aliassime-Auger (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 6 - 60%). Aliassime-Auger (votes: 4 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8. Aliassime-Auger is ranked ATP: 6.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 2.

De Minaur is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aliassime-Auger is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Aliassime-Auger may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Aliassime-Auger might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Aliassime-Auger will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Rotterdam
14.02.26	Alex De Minaur - Ugo Humbert	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Alex De Minaur - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Alex De Minaur - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Alex De Minaur - Arthur Fils	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
27.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWWL
- Felix Aliassime-Auger
ATP Rotterdam
14.02.26	Alexander Bublik - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
11.02.26	Alexei Popyrin - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
08.02.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
03.09.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	3:1
ATP Roma
13.05.24	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	1:2
Davis Cup World Group
27.11.22	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.22	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Challenger
11.05.18	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	1:2
17.03.17	Alex De Minaur - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2

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