Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Vienna, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday


	Alex De Minaur		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.3	3.45	Watch
	1.33	3.62
	1.40	2.84	Watch
			Watch
	1.32	3.55	Watch
	1.38	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.4)	3.3 ↑ (2.84)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
71.2%

Matteo Berrettini
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.3%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.2%	0%	4.8%

Alex De Minaur - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4.5 Games - Berrettini (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alex De Minaur will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.13% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex De Minaur will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. De Minaur (votes: 8 - 80%). Berrettini (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7. Berrettini is ranked ATP: 59.

De Minaur is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Berrettini has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Berrettini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, De Minaur is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Vienna
22.10.25	Alex De Minaur - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
20.10.25	Alex De Minaur - Jurij Rodionov	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
10.10.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
08.10.25	Nuno Borges - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Kamil Majchrzak - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWLWW
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Vienna
23.10.25	Matteo Berrettini - Cameron Norrie	2:1 ✺
22.10.25	Alexei Popyrin - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Stockholm
16.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
14.10.25	Matteo Berrettini - Giulio Zeppieri	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
01.10.25	Adrian Mannarino - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
25.03.25	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Berrettini	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.23	Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur	3:0
ATP Cup
02.01.22	Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur	0:2
ATP London
19.06.21	Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Challenger
05.08.17	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Berrettini	2:0

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