Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 3
Hungary	Arena 4


	Daniil Medvedev		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
			Watch
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.67	1.54
	2.60	1.50	Watch
	2.67	1.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.86)	1.51 ↑ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
36.4%

Alex De Minaur
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.2%	0%	54.8%

Daniil Medvedev - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 19 - 45.2%). De Minaur will win (votes: 23 - 54.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 39.7% – 69.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 9 - 37.5%). De Minaur (votes: 15 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4.5 Games - Medvedev (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 10 - 40%). De Minaur (votes: 15 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 18. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 3.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

De Minaur is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that De Minaur will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Shanghai
08.10.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
06.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
30.09.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired ✺
29.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Zverev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWW?W
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Shanghai
08.10.25	Nuno Borges - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Kamil Majchrzak - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
30.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Alex De Minaur - Jakub Mensik	Mensik J. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alex De Minaur	0:2
ATP World Tour Finals
12.11.24	Daniil Medvedev - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
03.06.24	Alex De Minaur - Daniil Medvedev	3:1
ATP Beijing
30.09.23	Alex De Minaur - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP US Open
04.09.23	Daniil Medvedev - Alex De Minaur	3:1
ATP Toronto
11.08.23	Alex De Minaur - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP Paris
02.11.22	Daniil Medvedev - Alex De Minaur	1:2

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