Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday


	Alex De Minaur		Reilly Opelka

	1	2
	1.2	4.5	Watch
	1.28	3.6	Watch
	1.21	4.4	Watch
	1.23	4.59
	1.23	3.96	Watch
	1.3	3.5	Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.33)	4.09 ↑ (3.4)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
76.7%

Reilly Opelka
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.9%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Reilly Opelka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reilly Opelka than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Reilly Opelka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

Alex De Minaur - Reilly Opelka Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Opelka will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Opelka (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8. Opelka is ranked ATP: 73.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

De Minaur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, De Minaur is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Toronto
05.08.25	Alex De Minaur - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Christopher OConnell - Alex De Minaur	De Minaur A. walkover ✺
30.07.25	Francisco Comesana - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
27.07.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LW?WW
- Reilly Opelka
ATP Cincinnati
08.08.25	Hugo Dellien - Reilly Opelka	0:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Learner Tien - Reilly Opelka	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Reilly Opelka - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
27.07.25	Sebastian Ofner - Reilly Opelka	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
23.07.25	Daniil Medvedev - Reilly Opelka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP London
13.06.22	Reilly Opelka - Alex De Minaur	0:2
ATP Basel
26.10.19	Reilly Opelka - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.19	Alex De Minaur - Reilly Opelka	2:0
ATP Atlanta
27.07.19	Reilly Opelka - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Sydney
08.01.19	Alex De Minaur - Reilly Opelka	2:0

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