Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bloomfield Hills, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday


	Alex Michelsen		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.33	3.10	Watch
	1.37	3.00
	1.36	3.42
	1.32	3.07	Watch
	1.34	3.30	Watch
	1.34	2.97	Watch
	1.33	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.32)	3.15 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
70.1%

Arthur Gea
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.5%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.1%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-1%)

Alex Michelsen - Arthur Gea Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 46. Gea is ranked ATP: 137.

In recent matches, Michelsen has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gea is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Michelsen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Michelsen is the team to beat.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Challenger
11.07.26	Adam Walton - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
10.07.26	Liam Broady - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
09.07.26	Jason Jung - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
08.07.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Alex Michelsen - Jacob Fearnley	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWWWL
- Arthur Gea
ATP Challenger
19.07.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Murphy Cassone - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
17.07.26	Liam Draxl - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
16.07.26	Keegan Rice - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
14.07.26	Fajing Sun - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWW

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