Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday


	Alex Michelsen		Francisco Cerundolo

	1	2
	1.62	2.30	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.58	2.35	Watch
	1.67	2.34
	1.6	2.34	Watch
	1.65	2.30
	1.62	2.36	Watch
	1.64	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.57)	2.32 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
58.8%

Francisco Cerundolo
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Alex Michelsen - Francisco Cerundolo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Michelsen will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Cerundolo will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Michelsen: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 42. Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 23.

Michelsen is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Cerundolo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Michelsen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Michelsen could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Michelsen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 60.25%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Montreal
03.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
31.07.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
29.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Jack Draper	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWW?
- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Los Cabos
30.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
29.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Tristan Boyer	Boyer T. Retired ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
18.07.26	Luis Guto Miguel - Francisco Cerundolo	3:2 ✺
17.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Cameron Norrie	3:0 ✺
16.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Brandon Nakashima	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 L?LWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Vienna
21.10.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex Michelsen	2:0
ATP Halle
17.06.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex Michelsen	1:2

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