Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Los Cabos, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Sweden	TV4 Play
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Francisco Cerundolo		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	1.50	2.63	Watch
	1.53	2.45
	1.50	2.60	Watch
	1.56	2.64
	1.51	2.56	Watch
	1.54	2.55
	1.50	2.63	Watch
	1.50	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.42)	2.57 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
62.9%

Arthur Gea
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.8%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francisco Cerundolo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arthur Gea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Francisco Cerundolo - Arthur Gea Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Francisco Cerundolo will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 20. Gea is ranked ATP: 127.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cerundolo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Francisco Cerundolo - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 65.76%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Los Cabos
29.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Tristan Boyer	Boyer T. Retired ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
18.07.26	Luis Guto Miguel - Francisco Cerundolo	3:2 ✺
17.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Cameron Norrie	3:0 ✺
16.07.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Brandon Nakashima	1:3 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Jaume Munar - Francisco Cerundolo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 ?LWLL
- Arthur Gea
ATP Los Cabos
29.07.26	Arthur Gea - Michael Zheng	2:1 ✺
28.07.26	Soon Woo Kwon - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Arthur Gea	Canceled ✺
19.07.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Murphy Cassone - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WW?LW

Upcoming Matches