Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Jinan 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Alibek Kachmazov		Jay Dylan Hara Friend

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.05	1.70
	2.1	1.66
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	2.2	1.69
	2.08	1.67	Watch
	2.1	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.07)	1.67 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alibek Kachmazov
44.3%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend
55.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.8%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alibek Kachmazov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Jay Dylan Hara Friend has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alibek Kachmazov than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jay Dylan Hara Friend than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Alibek Kachmazov - Jay Dylan Hara Friend Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kachmazov is ranked ATP: 525., and Hara Friend is ranked ATP: 260..

Kachmazov arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Hara Friend shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Our forecast points to a victory for Hara Friend in today's match, at odds of 1.64.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Kachmazov has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Alibek Kachmazov - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.79%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alibek Kachmazov
ATP Challenger
10.10.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Alibek Kachmazov	1:2 ✺
10.10.26	Alibek Kachmazov - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Evan Zhu - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
06.10.26	Alibek Kachmazov - Charles Broom	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWW
- Jay Dylan Hara Friend
ATP Challenger
10.10.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Alibek Kachmazov	1:2 ✺
09.10.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Jay Dylan Hara Friend	0:2 ✺
09.10.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Ryan Seggerman	2:0 ✺
07.10.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	2:0 ✺
06.10.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Yuta Kikuchi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.10.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Alibek Kachmazov	1:2

Alibek Kachmazov - Jay Dylan Hara Friend