Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Buenos Aires, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday


	Andrea Collarini		Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.6	2.15	Watch
	1.66	2.11	Watch
	1.65	2.11	Watch
	1.65	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.84)	2.14 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Collarini
56.7%

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Collarini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Andrea Collarini's performance.

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Collarini than the current prediction. (-17.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrea Collarini that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio than the current prediction. (+17.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Andrea Collarini - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino Samudio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Collarini (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Andrea Collarini will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Collarini is ranked ATP: 240. Varillas is ranked ATP: 253.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Collarini won 4.

Now, both players are in good form.

Collarini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Collarini won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.8:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Andrea Collarini - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.09%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Collarini
ATP Challenger
15.01.26	Pedro Boscardin Dias - Andrea Collarini	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Lucio Ratti - Andrea Collarini	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi - Andrea Collarini	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Gustavo Heide - Andrea Collarini	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Andrea Collarini - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLW
- Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
ATP Challenger
15.01.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Lautaro Midon	2:1 ✺
14.01.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Pedro Sakamoto	Sakamoto P. retired ✺
12.01.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Gonzalo Villanueva	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
27.11.25	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 W?WLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
15.04.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Andrea Collarini	1:2
21.01.25	Andrea Collarini - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	Canceled
09.10.24	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Andrea Collarini	1:2
04.07.24	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Andrea Collarini	1:2
25.01.23	Andrea Collarini - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	1:2
11.10.22	Andrea Collarini - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	1:2
26.09.22	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Andrea Collarini	Canceled

Andrea Collarini - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide