Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 12, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday


	Andrey Chepelev		Nick Hardt

	1	2
			Watch
	2.62	1.45
	2.58	1.43	Watch
	2.7	1.42	Watch
	2.75	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↓ (2.75)	1.43 ↑ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Chepelev
34.9%

Nick Hardt
65.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Chepelev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Nick Hardt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Chepelev than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrey Chepelev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nick Hardt than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nick Hardt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Andrey Chepelev - Nick Hardt Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Chepelev is ranked ATP: 497. Hardt is ranked ATP: 569.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Hardt may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hardt could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Chepelev
ITF Tournaments
15.10.25	Andrey Chepelev - Dominik Recek	0:2 ✺
13.10.25	Federico Bondioli - Andrey Chepelev	Bondioli F. retired ✺
09.10.25	Andrey Chepelev - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
08.10.25	Andrey Chepelev - Gian Gruenig	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Andrey Chepelev - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 L?LWW
- Nick Hardt
ITF Tournaments
17.10.25	Dominik Recek - Nick Hardt	2:1 ✺
15.10.25	Nick Hardt - Lorenzo Giustino	Giustino L. retired ✺
14.10.25	Nick Hardt - Lorenzo Berto	2:0 ✺
02.10.25	Nick Hardt - Ivan Gakhov	0:2 ✺
01.10.25	Richard Antoni - Nick Hardt	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 L?WLW

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