Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cherbourg - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday


	Antoine Ghibaudo		Matt Ponchet

	1	2
			Watch
	1.25	3.55
	1.24	4.25
	1.23	3.72	Watch
	1.25	3.75
	1.25	3.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.4)	3.77 ↑ (2.7)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Antoine Ghibaudo
75.2%

Matt Ponchet
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Antoine Ghibaudo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Antoine Ghibaudo's performance.

Matt Ponchet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matt Ponchet might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Antoine Ghibaudo than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Antoine Ghibaudo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matt Ponchet than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matt Ponchet could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Antoine Ghibaudo - Matt Ponchet Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ghibaudo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Antoine Ghibaudo will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ghibaudo is ranked ATP: 338. Ponchet is ranked ATP: 828.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Ghibaudo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ghibaudo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Antoine Ghibaudo - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 65.85%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Antoine Ghibaudo
ATP Challenger
08.03.26	Antoine Ghibaudo - Alexandre Reco	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Rio Noguchi - Antoine Ghibaudo	Canceled ✺
24.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Antoine Ghibaudo	2:1 ✺
23.02.26	Antoine Ghibaudo - Timeo Trufelli	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Antoine Ghibaudo - Loann Massard	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 W?LWW
- Matt Ponchet
ATP Challenger
08.03.26	Matt Ponchet - Matisse Bobichon	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.03.26	Matt Ponchet - Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka	1:2 ✺
03.03.26	Loann Massard - Matt Ponchet	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Matt Ponchet - Jelle Sels	1:2 ✺
19.02.26	Matt Ponchet - Yanis Ghazouani Durand	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWLL

Antoine Ghibaudo - Matt Ponchet: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide