Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	ESPN


	Arthur Gea		Stanislas Wawrinka

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.58	2.4	Watch
	1.59	2.35	Watch
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.54	2.51	Watch
	1.53	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.68)	2.41 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Gea
60.7%

Stanislas Wawrinka
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Stanislas Wawrinka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stanislas Wawrinka than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.8%	0%	8.2%

Arthur Gea - Stanislas Wawrinka Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Gea (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arthur Gea will win (45 of 49 users predict this - 91.84%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.17% – 99.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arthur Gea will win (25 of 27 users predict this - 92.59%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 26 - 92.9%). Wawrinka (votes: 2 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Gea is ranked ATP: 198. Wawrinka is ranked ATP: 139.

Gea has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Wawrinka is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gea is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Gea will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Gea
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Jiri Lehecka - Arthur Gea	0:3 ✺
14.01.26	Arthur Gea - Daniel Vallejo	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Zdenek Kolar - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.01.26	Jurij Rodionov - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWWW
- Stanislas Wawrinka
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Laslo Djere - Stanislas Wawrinka	1:3 ✺
ATP United Cup
11.01.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Zizou Bergs	1:2 ✺
07.01.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Flavio Cobolli - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLL

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