Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Brisbane, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brisbane 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Blake Ellis		Hikaru Shiraishi

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
			Watch
	1.45	2.55
	1.52	2.66
	1.45	2.55
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.44	2.59	Watch
	1.45	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.8)	2.58 ↑ (1.89)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Blake Ellis
63.8%

Hikaru Shiraishi
36.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.2%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Blake Ellis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Blake Ellis's performance.

Hikaru Shiraishi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hikaru Shiraishi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Blake Ellis than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Blake Ellis that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hikaru Shiraishi than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hikaru Shiraishi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Blake Ellis - Hikaru Shiraishi Predictions

Users Predictions: Blake Ellis will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Blake Ellis will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Ellis is ranked ATP: 444. Shiraishi is ranked ATP: 429.

Ellis has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Shiraishi is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ellis might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Blake Ellis
ATP Australian Open
12.01.26	Blake Ellis - Stefano Travaglia	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.01.26	Jurij Rodionov - Blake Ellis	2:1 ✺
08.01.26	Blake Ellis - Bernard Tomic	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Blake Ellis - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
05.01.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Blake Ellis	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LLWWW
- Hikaru Shiraishi
ATP Challenger
18.01.26	Tim Handel - Hikaru Shiraishi	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Hikaru Shiraishi - Neil Oberleitner	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Akira Santillan - Hikaru Shiraishi	Santillan A. retired ✺
06.01.26	Kasidit Samrej - Hikaru Shiraishi	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Hikaru Shiraishi - Kokoro Isomura	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LL?LW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Blake Ellis
ITF Tournaments
29.10.26	Anton Shepp - Blake Ellis	✺
- Hikaru Shiraishi
ITF Tournaments
29.10.26	Hikaru Shiraishi - Jumpei Yamasaki	✺

Blake Ellis - Hikaru Shiraishi